0N_TECHSTORM Winter 2024 Forecast

The Hype Continues…

Now that 2023 has come to an end, we look forward to 2024, or are we really? The horizon is still filled with dark clouds, but in some instances we can see light at the end of the tunnel.

My wishes for this year is that wars will end, winter will be snowy and steep, and summer warm and windy (by Swedish standards). Interest rates will go down and startup valuations will reach their true equilibrium. We will not get the politicians we deserve, they will actually be a lot better than that. Populism will give way to more reasonable views on the state of the world, and we will finally see proactive visions for the future of humanity and not only panic reactions to all crises, large or small. 🤞🤞

The Techstorm 2024 Winter Forecast

Now in it’s eight year, the tradition of a January 1st Techstorm Forecast is a humble attempt to structure my thinking for the year to come. In the past I’ve used various forecasting methods, expert databases, crowdsourcing, and AI tools. Starting this year (of course) I have put to use any and all available generative AI tools. This forecast was crafted with the help of the latest ChatGPT version, newly released Google Gemini and NotebookLM, but primarily through interactions with lots of startup, VC, research, and policy insiders (without their knowing, of course, but thanks to everyone wh contributed :-)

In other words, the Techstorm Winter 2024 Forecast is part tech-enabled, part crowd-sourced, and part subjective judgment.

Download the forecast, install as lock screen image on your phone, and use it to sound really smart in your next C-suite meeting. ✌️

Quite a lot of changes as always. A couple of highlights worth mentioning:

Still number 1 on the list is AI, of course the hallucinating generative version and most predominant one at the moment. ChatGPT is almost becoming as generic as thermos and xerox. It’s crazy out there to say the least! Only time will tell where this field is ending up and who the winners will be. Lots of big bets are being placed! For more on all AI buzzwords and craze, see my December AI Forecast here.

Also worth mentioning is that quantum computing is maturing, with a couple of tech stacks getting well-deserved attention, paired with a move towards specialized software and hardware providers instead of full-blown computing manufacturers. Space is taking off (pun intended) with an increasing interest in asteroid mining, space tourism, and moon exploration. All fueled by the rapid decrese in launch cost. Drones are finding new use cases by the minute, unfortunately often fueled by wartime creativity. In robotics, there’s two clear trends: One towards generalized humanoid robots, and one towards specialized single-task robots. Both areas showing steady progress.

We have two new entrants on the top 10 list, namely:

Longevity on #5, something of a Holy Grail in medical research, not to mention the almost infinite potential market if you find a solution. Not surprising it’s getting people’s attention. Receiving blood transfusions from your kids, staying cold, or limit your calorie intake. There’s lot’s of things you can do today to increase the odds for a longer life. If successful, this area will raise lots of practical, societal, and ethical questions, but let’s leave that for another day.

Agritech on #8 is rightfully getting more and more attention from researchers, entrepreneurs, VCs, and incumbents. There’s a, pull from farmers to use technology to counter the effects from increasing prices of fertilizers and labor as well as from climate change. We also see a push for more sustainable farming, and all of this being fueled by lots of agritech innovation in robotics, genetics, synthetic biology, drones, and AI, including a combination of all of the above.

5G is no longer on the Top 10 list. Still highly relevant, but I hardly see any entrepreneur or investor interest in the tech itself, only in the applications it can enable. This is quite common for an emerging technology once the dust settles and people start taking it for granted (relatively speaking).

Synthetic Biology is out, but this was a close one. Still lots of investor interest and great ideas in the making, albeit with a current feeling of “wait-and-see”…

If you want to go deep down the Techstorm rabbit hole and understand how technology changes your business, check out StepX. An on-demand streaming platform for business, organization, and management development, including a Techstorm Workshop title!

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A few things on my radar for 2024:

An upcoming social media fatigue 🤢
Organized online misinformation 👺
Useful quantum applications 🐈‍⬛
Macroeconomics 📈📉
Greenwashing 🌿
The Generative AI bubble 🤖
The upcoming election in the EU 🇪🇺
The upcoming election in the UK 🇬🇧
The upcoming election in the USA 🇺🇸
The upcoming election in the Republic of China 🇹🇼
The upcoming election in the Peoples Republic of China (yeah sure) 🇨🇳

Finally something I want to ask you. Please like, comment, forward to a friend, and/or share on social media while tagging me. I’m conducting an experiment, and am curious about the potential online reach. 🙏

Stay curious and a bit skeptical!
... Nicklas

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One More Thing...

Ok, maybe a bit late to the party here, but the Oppenheimer movie is now availabe for streaming from a service of your liking. Not only masterful performances by Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt, and an innovative storytelling along three intertwined storylines by Christopher Nolan. It also raises lots of questions around ethical perspectives from the development of new technologies. Not providing all the answers though, but maybe that’s too much to ask for…