Techstorm Forecast - Winter 2026
It’s getting complicated…
First, a pitch/push/promo for an upcoming evening event in Stockholm on January 26th:
If you’re in town, join me at Epicenter for an honest discussion on AI. I’ll do my best to keep up with Ari Stein and Johan Harvard.
Tickets can be found here, and note that all proceeds will go to the Mind Foundation.
After that brief commercial break, welcome to 2026! Time flies, and it’s only four years left before we enter the 2030s, can you imagine? For some strange reason, we tend to connect major future events and scenarios to this human-made creation called decades.
”In 2030, we will have an educational system that …”
”In 2030, we will be present in 12 new markets … ”
Some of these scenarios are nostalgic, some makes sense, and some are used to build expectations and to further inflate stock prices.
Anyway, we’re not quite there yet, and from what I see, there’s a lot that will happen before we get there.
So, let’s dive into the latest iteration of the Techstorm Forecast. Lots of movement, but as expected, Generative AI and Genetic Engineering still in the top spots. One entrant coming back to the Top 10 is Autonomous Vehicles, due to recent autonomous taxi launches by Waymo and Tesla in the US, as well as a massive push from Baidu and Chinese car manufacturers.
I can’t decide if European hesitance is a good or a bad thing when seeing recent evidence of a quite immature technology.
A couple of notable mentions from the Top 10 list include quantum computing, cognitive robotics, and extended reality, but let’s start with another (too) long rant on Generative AI:
Generative AI
The current state of AI exhuberance can be summarized in this December quote in New York Times:
Gaurav Jain at Afore Capital has adjusted his investment criteria. He previously sought out great founders with great ideas. Now, he said, he is willing to back great founders with not-so-great ideas — or no ideas at all. The strategy is risky, but Mr. Jain’s firm helps entrepreneurs develop their ideas.
“We cannot wait for the companies to have an idea and take off, because then it’s too late,” he said.”
Let’s take that last quote again.
“We cannot wait for the companies to have an idea and take off, because then it’s too late,” he said.”
This is yet another piece of evidence of people saying ”This time is different!” when we know from past experience that it’s never the case.
Just to be clear, this is not from a new episode of the (ever so current) Silicon Valley TV-series, it’s actually for real.
The AI landscape is changing by the minute, and it’s almost impossible to keep track of all new LLM versions and which one is currently the best. Also, there’s an endless stream of investment news, be it hardware, data centers, or new crazy valuations of the latest, hottest, startup. It’s a constant flow of information and disinformation, quite often to create hype, control the narrative, inflate share price, and/or prepare for the next fundraise.
As with all of us, I’m struggling to make sense of it all. One the one hand I’m fascinated by the long-term prospects and use cases, but on the other hand, it’s clear to me that this is a bubble. In my most recent Techstorm AI Forecast in November, I broke the bubble down in four parts. In short, my answer to the ”Are we experiencing an AI bubble?” question is: Yes, Probably, Definitely, and No, in that order. Join me in going down the AI bubble rabbit hole here.
The only scenario where the massive AI investments we’re seeing can be justified is if A) Generative AI will not turn into a low-margin commodity, B) There’s no diminishing returns when training and scaling LLMs, C) That noone will come up with a more efficient way to train and run these models, and D) Generative AI is the ONLY path to AGI.
I have yet to see any convincing argument that A, B, C, and/or D will become true.
We can compare Generative AI with any technology breakthrough from the past, be it the steam engine, cellphone, or computer, and it’s obvious that the first version is never the one that’s there for the long term. Unless you’re nostalgic, you don’t use the first Netscape browser to book an Uber, making calls on your old Nokia 7110 (yes, the one Neo had in The Matrix), or write your next movie script on a mid-1990s IBM desktop PC anymore, right?
Quantum Computing
In the quantum computing realm, I see some early signs of actual market adoption. Still early, but it’s clear that companies in the energy, pharmaceuticals, and financial sectors are starting to experiment with cloud solutions that mix classical with quantum approaches. It will be interesting to see whether this is only test balloons or if there’s actual computing advantage to be found here.
Another clear sign that it’s maturing is that all large consultancies are publishing quantum computing white papers, reports, and strategy documents. As we know, they’re always early on the ball, positioning themselves for a potential market surge.
Speak of the devil, here’s a recent quantum computing applications primer I wrote for Capital Insights magazine a couple of weeks ago. My sincere apologies when capitalizing on decades of other people’s work and billions of EUR invested.
Whether you feel overwhelmed by ”yet another computing paradigm” or just don’t believe in the promises of quantum computing, make sure to be prepared for Q-Day!
Cognitive Robotics
2025 was the year when we saw a tsunami of humanoid robots concepts. Some with impressive demos of robots running marathons, cleaning the house, dancing, and kung-fu fighting, some of them still with human interventionin the background, but more and more these machines are working by themselves, just not always as intended.
The robotics race these days is spearheaded by Chinese and US companies, with a somewhat surprising Norwegian entrant. In other words, also robotics is these days high on the geopolitical agenda. As with many other technologies these days, innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors, are each in their own way (and with their own reasons) painting a picture where there in the not so distant future (2030 maybe?) will be millions of humanoid robots walking the streets. That vision is even a clause in Elon Musk’s 1 trillion USD Tesla pay package.
As a parallell development, lots of specialized robotic applications are in the works. Is agriculture, space exploration, disaster rescue, and healthcare, we can see clear and near-term use cases.
Extended reality
The last but not least technology worth mentioning is Extended Reality. An area that’s been in the making for more than two decades, and that’s seen it’s fair share of failed product launches. Remember Google Glass and the Glasshole backlash in 2012, or the 2018 release of Magic Leap One?
As with most technologies, it takes time to earn market acceptance and gratitude. Even Apple is struggling with this after launching their Vision Pro headset in 2024, with generally very positive reviews, but challenged by a 3,499 USD price tag. The difference here is that Apple is able to play the long game, supporting its XR ecosystem, and most probably releasing cheaper versions in the future.
Meta has chosen a different path to market, launching their Meta glasses as a collab with Ray-Ban and Oakley. Also, and maybe most important, the form factor is a lot smaller and similar to a pair of glasses.
All-in-all, there’s clear signs that the XR market finally is reaching maturity.
On My Radar in 2026
EU
USA
China
Fusion power
World models
The world economy
The Swedish election
Generative AI profits?
People with the ability to stay optimistic in times of great uncertainty
I’ll also promise to work on improving my ability to see two perspectives at the same time, such as: ”AI will change the world, but at the moment it’s definitely a bubble.”
No pressure, plenty of space!
… Nicklas
One More Thing …
A couple of weeks ago my daughter convinced me to go see ”Bugonia” with her. First we went for some ”800 grader” pizza (best in Stockholm if you ask her), and then close to two hours of tin-foil-hat conspiracy theories, plot twists, some surprise encounters, and great acting. Not sure if you should label this movie a comedy, thriller, sci-fi, or even drama, but I can highly recommend it!