TECHSTORM Winter 2025 Forecast
Part 1 of 2, stay tuned!
Happy New Year! I hope you all had a great time last night! Btw, it’s OK to revoke your New Year’s resolutions now; I promise not to tell anyone.
2024 was indeed a turbulent year, but don’t forget that there were many things to celebrate!
Almost 2 billion people in 60 countries worldwide went to the polls last year, mainly peacefully. Yes, there were demonstrations, fake news, warnings of stolen elections, and online disinformation campaigns. The economy was the #1 issue in most countries, not surprisingly given widespread inflation and limited growth. This meant that voters showed their discontent and frustration by voting out incumbents, independently of where these were on the political spectrum.
We’ve had lots of incredible science news in 2024. Last year saw a new HIV vaccine with a potential 100% efficacy, SpaceX catching a booster rocket with chopsticks, and Chinese researchers succeeding in keeping atoms in a state of quantum superposition for 23 minutes. Pretty impressive, if you ask me. Useful? Not yet…
The Techstorm Winter 2025 Forecast
Generative AI is (of course) top of mind and top of the list. It’s an odd combination of amazement over new features and disillusionment over the lack of actual, valuable features. Daily, I see bad AI-generated images and texts popping up in the most unexpected places, often giving me the impression that the illustrator or writer is beyond lazy. When used the right way, I probably don’t even notice it.
Questions about the long-term prospects of Gen AI are popping up everywhere, though. Are we seeing diminishing returns on the training models? Probably yes, but the question is if there will be quantum leaps in Gen AI innovations to compensate. Are AI agents the answer here? Who knows but the consultants and AI influencers? Will Nvidia be outcompeted, or have they perfected a hardware-software moat? Is there a financial AI bubble, and if so, will it burst in 2025? How will that affect the stock market as the Magnificent Seven now stand for an astounding 21% of the value of the MSCI World Index?
With protein folding taking a recent quantum leap and receiving the Nobel Prize in 2024, combined with the HIV vaccine mentioned above and other impressive developments in cancer treatments, Genetic Engineering is back at #2. From the dozens of up-and-coming biotech startups I see through the EIC Fund every year, the future for the field looks bright.
Energy Systems is down to #3. Unfortunately, there has been some severe energy turbulence lately. Not only are we seeing a backlash for some high-profile startups, but we also have to face the challenge of politicians being unable to agree on what’s what, if it’s necessary, and when we need to act.
On #5, we have Quantum Computing, which gained a few spots on the list. This is partly because of more scientific breakthroughs, like the 23-minute quantum state mentioned above, but mainly because of some actual technical achievements that have brought it closer to market. A special mention to Google, which published its results on the Willow quantum chip in December. They managed to reach two quantum dream states simultaneously: Reduce errors exponentially while scaling up to more qubits AND best-ever random circuit sampling (which is the benchmark measurement when comparing quantum computers). While all this is impressive, we don’t have any useful applications from these gadgets yet. Or, using Google Quantum AI’s founder Hartmut Neven’s own words:
“The next challenge for the field is to demonstrate a first "useful, beyond-classical" computation on today's quantum chips that is relevant to a real-world application.”
Then, back on the list is, of course, Blockchain and Cryptocurrency (#8). After many years and tons of money spent searching for useful applications, the only outcome so far has been the highly volatile speculation in cryptocurrencies, most notably Bitcoin. With a 2024 rally seeing a 123% increase, some people say the sky is the limit. Who knows? I don’t!
What I do know is that the specific Bitcoin protocol is both a blessing and a curse here. On the one hand, it creates a made-up shortage. Bitcoin differs from other asset classes because it doesn’t trade on fundamentals but instead on a fabricated demand shortage. That said, the beauty of a democratized global currency is not to be underestimated.
On the other hand, long transaction times, high transaction costs, and limited programmability will be limiting factors for the foreseeable future.
Thank you for your attention. Hit reply and let me know what you think, hit forward and send it to your ignorant boss/brother-in-law/neighbor/colleague/investor, or share on your preferred social media.
Stay curious and a bit skeptical!
… Nicklas
P.S. Over Christmas, we’ve had an intense debate about whether this is a good joke or not. What do you think?
The bartender says: “We don’t serve time travelers here.” A time traveler walks into a bar.
One more thing…
I’m a big fan of the author Peter F Hamilton and his work on big-scale, epic sci-fi novels. With his latest book, Exodus, he has joined forces with game developer Archetype Entertainment to create a new RPG based on the characters and universe he created.
For me, it’s the first time reading a book that will turn into a game, and roughly halfway through, it shows great promise. I know sci-fi isn’t for everyone, but if it is, give Hamilton a try.